When Will SSD Have Same Price as HDD:

The retail price for 256GB and 512GB SSDs has been dropping at a linear rate since 2010. In comparison, HDD pricing and new technology introductions have been stagnant. The HDD industry’s highest capacity in a 2.5″ 2-disk configuration has been the same 1TB for the last 3+ years. If SSD pricing continued to fall at the same rate, then mathematically SSDs would match HDD pricing by mid to late 2013; however, a recent up-tick in SSD pricing […] is expected to delay the intercept into 2014 or beyond.

Exciting news… but as with all predictions, this one is hard to get right, and as the prices of the two kinds of HD come closer, there will be new factors influencing the pricing that aren’t relevant to today’s curves. That said – I’m looking forward to SSD being cheap!

2 Responses to “When Will SSD Have Same Price as HDD”

  1. Beat Rubischon Says:

    SSDs are nice, at least in classic desktop environments and even more in notebooks. Superfast and low power consumtion – I would never go back to a disk in my notebook. But in servers it’s still tricky as a typical SSD cell survives something between 3000 and 30’000 write cycles. Afterwards they are broken and must be replaced. All SSDs contains unallocated space, the more expensive ones with more warranty also more space then the cheaper ones. Some vendors have a limit of write cycles in their small print which limits the usual three years warranty.

    The current approach is to use SSDs beside classic disk based RAID as read cache to increase access to hot spots. All RAID controller vendors have chosen this way, ZFS too. If it helps is often highly depending on the workload of the server and I’m pretty sure classic RDBMs will run on classic disks for quite a long time to avoid the high replacement rates of SSDs.

    So my wish aren’t cheap SSDs, but long living ones 🙂

  2. maol Says:

    Very true, thanks for the insight Beat. I thought about adding a “disclaimer” that this is primarily about desktop SSDs… as I don’t expect server SSD drives coming down in price to equal spinning disks anytime soon, for the reason you give above.

    However there are a number of developments in the database space that will make better use of (or rather will exclusively use) SSD like Facebook’s McDipper or Microsoft’s Hyder. But these are not your classic RDBMS 🙂